Winter Season Outlook 2024-25

November, 5th 2024

The question on everyone’s minds leading up to winter… What’s the snow outlook for the 2024-25 season?

Last winter saw average snowfall across the region and Niseko Tokyu Grand HIRAFU measured 11.9 meters or 39 feet at the mid-mountain station. Yes, 12 meters is considered an “average” season here in the powder kingdom, and as the beloved main character, Maximus, in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator shouted from the center of the Colosseum, “Is this not why you are here!?”

Here in Niseko, Autumn is in full effect. The air is cool and crisp, the leaves are varying hues of reds, yellows and burnt orange… and Mt. Yotei recently saw its first snow, signalling the transition from green season to white.

There’s a palpable buzz in the air and whispers amongst locals and from overseas travellers who plan on visiting our hallowed slopes this season. Because… This winter may be a La Niña winter!

So what is La Niña and what could it potentially mean for the 2024-25 season? In short… It’s a good thing… with the possibility of colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall.

Without getting too technical, La Niña typically means cooler sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific ocean, which strengthens trade winds, blowing east to west, resulting in warmer water temperatures in the western Pacific (for a detailed analysis, check out the report from our friends at Mountainwatch HERE. When this happens, we often see 2 things:

Stronger Cold Winds: La Niña can cause cold air from Siberia to move more strongly into Hokkaido, resulting in colder winter temperatures.
Increased Snowfall: These are the winds that pick up moisture from the warmer waters of the Sea of Japan, leading to more snow, especially for the western part of Hokkaido, where Niseko is located.

Let’s look at examples of recent La Niña winters and the resulting snowfall numbers as measured from the Niseko Tokyu Grand HIRAFU mid-mountain station at 820 meters.

2020-21 season – 15.9 meters – 52 feet

2017-18 season – 15.2 meters – 50 feet

These numbers are sure to get anyone excited about another potential La Niña event this winter. While weather patterns are unpredictable and certainly not an exact science, our hopes are high for a colder than average winter with the potential for above average snowfall.