Niseko Winter Forecast 2025–26: Above-Average Snowfall Expected

October, 12th 2025

The mountains are calling – and Niseko’s forecast says it’s going to be an unforgettable winter.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has released its long-range outlook for the 2025–26 season, predicting a greater-than-usual chance of above-average snowfall along the Japan Sea side of Hokkaido – home to Niseko United’s four resorts: Grand Hirafu, Hanazono, Niseko Village, and Annupuri.

Early signs point to a colder-than-average start to the season, the perfect setup for early powder days and steady snowpack building right through mid-winter.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), October 2025 Seasonal Forecast

La Niña-Like Conditions Could Boost Japan’s Snowfall

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are currently present, but the Pacific Ocean remains in a slightly La Niña-like state heading into early winter.

This pattern often supports colder air and stronger northwesterly winds over Japan, the same ingredients that drive frequent snow systems across the Sea of Japan and into Hokkaido.

While the outlook is expected to return to neutral later in the season, these early-season tendencies could set the stage for above-average snowfall and steady powder cycles, particularly for northern Japan and Niseko.

Why That’s Good News for Niseko

Niseko sits perfectly positioned on the Japan Sea side of Hokkaido, directly in the path of those cold, moisture-laden winds.

As the air crosses the Sea of Japan, it gathers moisture, rises over the Niseko Range, and releases it as the light, dry powder snow that defines our winters.

This year’s forecast suggests the stars – and snow clouds – are aligning for frequent snowfalls and sustained coverage through mid-winter, promising an exceptional foundation for the 2025–26 season.

Looking Ahead

With the lifts set to start turning on November 29, preparations across Niseko United are already in full swing. From ski schools and rentals to après-ski venues and mountain lodges, excitement is building for what will be another unforgettable season.

Whether you’re planning your first tracks of winter or a holiday surrounded by Niseko’s famous powder, the long-range forecast gives every reason to start counting down the days.

Wondering when to visit Niseko? Check out our guide for a full month-by-month breakdown: When Is the Best Time to Visit Niseko?