Niseko Winter Forecast 2025-26: La Niña To Bring Above-Average Snowfall

October, 12th 2025

The mountains are calling – and Niseko’s forecast says it’s going to be an unforgettable winter.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has released its long-range outlook for the 2025–26 season, predicting a greater-than-usual chance of above-average snowfall along the Japan Sea side of Hokkaido – home to Niseko United’s four resorts: Grand Hirafu, Hanazono, Niseko Village, and Annupuri.

Early signs point to a colder-than-average start to the season, the perfect setup for early powder days and steady snowpack building right through mid-winter.

Source: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), October 2025 Seasonal Forecast

La Niña Expected to Shape Japan’s Winter

According to JMA, a La Niña weather pattern is likely to take hold in the Pacific Ocean.

La Niña events occur when ocean temperatures along the equator dip below normal, triggering shifts in global weather systems.

For Japan, that usually means colder air masses, stronger northwesterly winds, and more frequent snow fall rolling in from Siberia across the Sea of Japan.

While every La Niña year plays out differently, these atmospheric ingredients typically translate to consistent snowfall and extended powder cycles for northern Japan, and especially Hokkaido.

Why That’s Good News for Niseko

Niseko sits perfectly positioned on the Japan Sea side of Hokkaido, directly in the path of those cold, moisture-laden winds.

As the air crosses the Sea of Japan, it gathers moisture, rises over the Niseko Range, and releases it as the light, dry powder snow that defines our winters.

This year’s forecast suggests the stars – and snow clouds – are aligning for frequent snowfalls and sustained coverage through mid-winter, promising an exceptional foundation for the 2025–26 season.

Looking Ahead

With the lifts set to start turning on November 29, preparations across Niseko United are already in full swing. From ski schools and rentals to après-ski venues and mountain lodges, excitement is building for what will be another unforgettable season.

Whether you’re planning your first tracks of winter or a holiday surrounded by Niseko’s famous powder, the long-range forecast gives every reason to start counting down the days.

Wondering when to visit Niseko? Check out our guide for a full month-by-month breakdown: When Is the Best Time to Visit Niseko?